24:04, 24 Апрель 2023

Ипотека без господдержки: как изменятся спрос на жилье и ставки по кредитам

Возможное завершение программы государственного субсидирования ипотеки, о котором накануне, 19 января, заявил заместитель министра финансов Алексей Моисеев, может привести к росту ставок по жилищным кредитам и падению спроса на новостройки. Если отмена госсубсидий произойдет и власти не предложат никаких альтернативных мер поддержки рынка, это скажется на доступности квартир в новостройках для россиян, рассказали «РБК-Недвижимости» представители банков, девелоперских и риелторских компаний.

В Минфине анонсировали прекращение программы государственной поддержки ипотеки в запланированные ранее сроки — в конце марта 2016 года. «Субсидирование ставки продлеваться не будет. Это не означает, что не будет других мер поддержки ипотеки, но субсидирование ставки продлеваться не будет», — сказал Алексей Моисеев. Позднее в Минстрое РФ уточнили, что окончательного решения о завершении программы государственного субсидирования ипотеки у правительства пока нет. «В марте планируется подвести итоги действия этой программы, и только тогда будет принято решение, продлевать ее или нет», — сообщил пресс-секретарь ведомства Олег Ракитов. Сегодня на заседании общественного совета при Минстрое РФ глава министерства Михаил Мень сделал еще одно заявление: «Я думаю, решение будет положительным по продлению этой программы».

 

В чем заключается программа госсубсидирования ипотеки

 

Программа субсидирования ипотеки была запущена в марте 2015 года для того, чтобы помочь гражданам в покупке жилья после резкого роста ставок по кредитам из-за повышения ключевой ставки в декабре 2014-го до 17%.

 

Ставка по кредитам, выданным в рамках такой программы, не должна превышать 12% годовых, разницу с рыночными процентными ставками банкам возместит государство.

 

Программа направлена на покупку недвижимости на первичном рынке, сумма кредита не может превышать 8 млн руб. для Москвы, Московской области и Санкт-Петербурга и 3 млн — для остальных городов, а первоначальный взнос должен быть не менее 20%. Действие программы заканчивается 1 марта 2016 года. Программа изначально была рассчитана на год. Также ее закрытие предусмотрено в случае, если ключевая ставка Центробанка опустится до 8,5%.

 

Госсубсидирование ставок помогло замедлить падение объемов выданной ипотеки. Из 590 тыс. жилищных кредитов 150 тыс. займов граждане получили на льготных условиях (почти треть от общего количества), которые обеспечило государство. В денежном эквиваленте ипотека с господдержкой в декабре прошлого года, по данным «Секвойя кредит консолидейшн», достигла отметки в 265 млрд руб.

 

За время работы программы с апреля 2015 года, по оценкам главы Минстроя РФ Михаила Меня, каждый четвертый ипотечный кредит взят в банках с помощью господдержки.

 

Что будет с ипотекой без господдержки

Отмена субсидий по ипотечным ставкам приведет к значительному росту процентов по жилищным кредитам. Сейчас средние ипотечные ставки на приобретение жилья в новостройке в рамках госпрограммы субсидирования в России составляют 10,5–11,5% годовых, приводит данные директор департамента розничных продаж ЮниКредит Банка Сергей Васяткин. «В случае отмены программы госсубсидирования ипотеки ставки в сегменте новостроек сразу взлетят на 2–3% и окажутся выше, чем на вторичном рынке жилья, так как здесь выше риски», — говорит представитель банка. «После отмены программы ипотеки с господдержкой процентные ставки могут вырасти на 4%, сумма ежемесячных платежей для ипотечных заемщиков существенно увеличится. Это может значительно снизить объемы продаж в массовых сегментах», — прогнозирует управляющий партнер риелторской компании «Бест-Новострой» Софья Лебедева.

Скорее всего, заемщикам, если не будет продлена программа льготной ипотеки, придется ориентироваться на ставки в размере 13–14%, подтвердила пресс-служба агентства «НДВ-Недвижимость». «После отмены госсубсидирования банки станут рассчитывать стоимость кредитов, исходя из размера ключевой ставки, предполагаемой прибыли и операционных расходов. Таким образом, ожидается пересмотр существующих ипотечных программ и удорожание кредитов», — отметили в агентстве.

Спрос может сократиться на 40%

Повышение ставок, если государство ничего не предложит взамен их субсидированию, может привести к значительному снижению спроса на первичном рынке жилья в России, прогнозируют участники рынка. «На начальном этапе объем сделок по покупке квартир в новостройках может уменьшиться на 40%», — сообщается в материалах инвестиционно-риелторской компании Est-a-Tet.

При таком падении застройщики будут вынуждены снижать цены для удержания спроса, считает директор направления «Недвижимость» компании Strategy Capital Advisor Наталья Круглова. Президент девелоперской группы «Гранель» Ильшат Нигматуллин объясняет, что застройщики могут работать с маржей не ниже 5–10%, позволяющей завершить строительство начатых проектов в установленные сроки и начать развитие новых площадок. «Но даже в случае сокращения маржи до минимума девелоперы в индивидуальном порядке будут предлагать скидки и акции, к которым привыкли покупатели», — добавляет он.

Скидки и акции могут предоставляться под видом коммерческого субсидирования ипотечных ставок застройщиками. «Девелоперы будут вынуждены запускать собственные инструменты стимулирования спроса, вероятнее всего — субсидирование, которое активно применялось и в течение действия госпрограммы», — объяснили в пресс-службе Est-a-Tet. Если большинство банков, как говорят в компании, подтянется к нижней границе ипотечных ставок — 13–13,5%, то застройщики смогут предложить ставки в районе 11%. «Таким образом, для покупателей отмена субсидирования может быть не столь болезненной, как кажется на первый взгляд», — резюмируют аналитики. Хотя риелторы «НДВ-Недвижимости» уточняют, что применение коммерческого субсидирования будет ограничено финансовыми возможностями девелоперов.

Аналитики Est-a-Tet не исключают вариант благополучного развития событий на рынке новостроек и без госпомощи. «В перспективе полугода спрос может вернуться к среднегодовому показателю 2015 года даже при отсутствии господдержки. После первого «шока» потенциальные заемщики, нацеленные на приобретение жилья, вернутся на рынок, поскольку рост ставки на два процентных пункта нельзя считать существенным для людей, которым необходимо улучшение жилищных условий», — прогнозируют в инвестиционно-риелторской компании Est-a-Tet. Ставка 13–14%, как говорится в материалах компании, не является запредельной и соответствует докризисному уровню.

Что предложат власти взамен субсидиям

Представители как Минфина, так и Минстроя заверяют, что какое бы решение в итоге ни было принято, строительный рынок не останется без поддержки государства.

Опрошенные редакцией «РБК-Недвижимости» участники рынка рассказали, что они готовы к любому развитию событий. «Решение о прекращении действия программы ипотеки с господдержкой — болезненный для рынка, но ожидаемый шаг. Еще в декабре мы начали предупреждать об этом потенциальных клиентов, параллельно начав диалог с властью о возможных будущих мерах по стимулированию спроса и сохранению доступности жилья», — говорит президент девелоперской ГК «Мортон» Александр Ручьев.

«Программа госсубсидирования ипотечных ставок не была рассчитана на искусственное поддержание строительной отрасли и рынка недвижимости в течение долгого срока. Ее роль заключалась в недопущении резкого провала. Но в условиях, когда спрос на ипотеку, в том числе с господдержкой, стал падать, продление программы теряет смысл», — высказывает свое мнение Софья Лебедева. В Москве, к примеру, количество сделок, совершенных с помощью ипотеки, по данным Росреестра, в 2015 году уменьшилось на 23,5% по сравнению с 2014-м.

Альтернативных госсубсидированию ипотеки вариантов поддержки рынка, по мнению Сергея Васяткина из ЮниКредит Банка, не очень много. Наиболее эффективной он считает помощь строительным компаниям, способную снизить стоимость возводимого жилья.

Именно поддержка застройщиков, по словам управляющего партнера риелторской компании «Метриум Групп» Марии Литинецкой, может стать наиболее вероятным сценарием будущей господдержки отрасли. «У нас есть информация о том, что с окончанием господдержки для физических лиц появится программа субсидирования уже для юридических лиц, в частности в виде льготных кредитов. В этом случае застройщики смогут предлагать покупателям длительные рассрочки по оплате приобретенных квартир на выгодных условиях», — говорит Мария Литинецкая.

Аналогичной информацией с «РБК-Недвижимостью» поделилась Софья Лебедева. «Сейчас Минфин, Минстрой, Минэкономразвития и АИЖК разрабатывают «новую конструкцию поддержки рынка жилья», направленную в первую очередь на застройщиков и только потом на потребителей. В основе концепции лежит идея поддержать застройщиков на ранних этапах строительства — начиная со стадии прокладки коммуникаций», — рассказала риелтор. Такая мера, по ее мнению, мотивирует компании к новому строительству и будет эффективнее ипотеки с господдержкой, которая сегодня в основном обеспечивает продажу готовых новостроек и домов в высокой степени готовности.

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Мнение за и против: выгодно ли сейчас брать ипотеку

О том, что объектом стимулирования со стороны государства могут стать девелоперы и строители, говорит и председатель совета директоров девелоперской группы компаний «Эталон» Вячеслав Заренков. Наталья Круглова из Strategy Capital Advisor, однако, считает, что механизм поддержки застройщиков, которые будут получать льготы, должен применяться обязательно вкупе с регулированием со стороны властей их ценовой политики.

Владимир Миронов

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