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27:04, 27 Апрель 2021
На ту же тему
Глобализация продолжается: как свобода побеждает торговые барьеры
Лучшее доказательство того, что либерализация мировой торговли продолжается, — заключение таких союзов, как Транстихоокеанское партнерство
После кризиса 2009–2010 годов темпы роста мировой торговли заметно снизились. В этом году, согласно прогнозу ВТО, рост составит всего 1,7%, что сопоставимо с уровнем 2001 года. Все это дает основание для различного рода утверждений о торможении процессов глобализации и наступлении в мировой экономике новой эры протекционизма. На самом деле оснований для такого вывода нет.
Система устояла
В 2009–2010 годах действительно наблюдался всплеск применения ограничительных мер в торговле, поскольку многие страны, включая Китай, использовали антидемпинговые инструменты для ослабления конкурентного давления на оказавшихся в кризисном состоянии производителей. Но по мере того как ситуация нормализовывалась, этот всплеск утих. И несмотря на то что посткризисный этап развития мировой экономики продолжается уже почти семь лет, ни одна страна не нарушила своих обязательств перед ВТО.
Есть некоторые количественные параметры, позволяющие говорить, что сейчас в странах «Большой двадцатки» несколько активизировалось применение антидемпинговых, компенсационных и других мер, но это нарастание не носит ярко выраженного характера. Количество этих мер исчисляется единицами, и говорить о том, что произошел какой-то качественный слом, не представляется возможным. Мировая торговая система оказалась очень устойчивой к вызовам кризиса.
Региональный либерализм
Современные процессы формирования региональных интеграционных объединений в формате «зона свободной торговли» (ЗСТ) и «зона свободной торговли плюс» (ЗСТ+) не только не несут угрозы существующему режиму мировой торговли, но и способствуют его дальнейшей либерализации. Да, прогресс в рамках многосторонних переговоров ВТО очень ограничен, но он более чем компенсируется теми инициативами, которые в последние годы обсуждаются и реализуются. Заключение соглашения о Транстихоокеанском партнерстве является одним из самых ярких примеров. Никаких мер, направленных против третьих стран, оно не предусматривает, зато содержит совершенно беспрецедентные положения, направленные на либерализацию взаимной торговли и инвестиций.
Вообще успешность соглашений в формате ЗСТ и ЗСТ+ опирается на максимальный учет интересов стейкхолдеров — сторон, вовлеченных в процесс экономического сотрудничества. Конечно, региональные интеграционные проекты инициируются и продвигаются политической волей конкретных государств и их лидеров. Но для того чтобы соглашение было успешным, необходимо, чтобы оно приносило конкретные выгоды экономическим субъектам.
Коль скоро это так, для успеха тех проектов, которые инициируются Россией, необходимы четкая ориентация именно на стейкхолдеров, четкий расчет издержек и выгод, демонстрация чистых выигрышей тех субъектов, от которых зависит принятие и выполнение соответствующих решений. В рамках того интеграционного проекта, который сейчас имеет условное название «Евразийское экономическое партнерство», это одно из ключевых условий успеха.
Евразийская интеграция
В то же время надо понимать, что для многих стейкхолдеров в ЕАЭС соглашения о либерализации торговли несут значительные риски. В частности, согласно исследованию МГИМО, перспективы соглашения с Индией гораздо больше обременены рисками для компаний и отраслей России и Белоруссии, чем перспективы соглашения с Южной Кореей. Поэтому здесь подходы должны быть диверсифицированы. И не следует, конечно, ставить политическую телегу впереди экономической лошади.
Понятно, что политики могут экономистов не послушаться и сказать: да, издержек много, да, это невыгодно, но мы все равно будем это делать. Но в таком случае нужно хотя бы понимать, к каким последствиям в экономической сфере подобные действия могут привести. Те субъекты, которые окажутся в проигрыше, всегда смогут выразить свое недовольство. А что из этого может получиться, мы уже видели на примере Brexit, когда значительная часть британского общества в какой-то момент осознала, что для нее издержки от участия в европейских интеграционных процессах превышают выгоду. Поэтому мы должны достаточно осторожно относиться к тем инициативам, которые озвучиваются в рамках нашего собственного интеграционного пространства.
Например, на XIII заседании Международного дискуссионного клуба «Валдай» коллега из Казахстана предложил использовать во взаимных расчетах между странами ЕАЭС гонконгский доллар, потому что с точки зрения экономических регуляторов Казахстана он по какой-то причине предпочтительнее, чем национальная валюта или доллар США. Однако на вопрос, кому из экономических стейкхолдеров это могло бы быть выгодно, внятного ответа дано не было. Более того, само озвучивание такого рода инициатив в публичном пространстве скорее способно дискредитировать наш интеграционный проект, чем решить какие-то реальные проблемы.
В то же время сейчас успешно идет работа над заключением непреференциального торгового соглашения между ЕАЭС и Китаем. И несмотря на то что хотелось бы думать о дальнейшем движении по пути либерализации, приходится учитывать, что Китай традиционно рассматривался как сложный партнер. Приходится учитывать структуру его экономики, факторы конкурентоспособности и ту озабоченность, которую высказывает российский бизнес. Естественно, это перспектива на много лет. И то, что мы начали с непреференциального соглашения, — это очень хорошо.
Другой партнер, в переговорах с которым уже имеются и экономические расчеты, и подходы к согласованию обоюдных позиций, — это Южная Корея. Экономически развитая страна, одна из немногих, кто никак не ограничил технологическое и инвестиционное сотрудничество с Россией. Страна, которая, с одной стороны, может внести вклад в развитие российских высокотехнологических отраслей, а с другой — может выступить в качестве рынка сбыта российской продукции. И выход на прагматические решения в переговорах с корейцами уже достаточно близок.
Автор — эксперт Международного дискуссионного клуба «Валдай». Клуб был создан в 2004 году, в его работе приняли участие более тысячи представителей мирового научного сообщества из 63 государств.
Точка зрения авторов, статьи которых публикуются в разделе «Мнения», может не совпадать с мнением редакции.
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