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07:12, 07 Декабрь 2023
На ту же тему
Заглянуть за горизонт: что предложили Путину на экономическом совете
Президент РФ Владимир Путин (в центре) на заседании президиума экономического совета в Кремле
Фото: Алексей Дружинин/ТАСС
На заседании президиума экономического совета при президенте — первом с 2014 года — обсуждали денежную эмиссию, сдерживание бюджетных расходов и теневой рынок труда. Владимир Путин «принял во внимание» все точки зрения
Президент Владимир Путин провел первое за последние два года заседание президентского экономического совета, на нем обсуждались «новые источники роста», в том числе такие нестандартные, как адресная денежная эмиссия.
Открывая совет, Путин, сославшись на экспертов, заявил, что российская экономика «в целом стабилизировалась, адаптировалась к текущим условиям». «Сейчас важно, что называется, заглянуть за горизонт, обратиться к вопросам стратегического характера», — призвал президент.
Путин признал, что старая модель экономического роста исчерпала себя: «Резервы и ресурсы, которые в начале 2000-х двигали нашу экономику вперед, не работают так, как прежде». Если не найти новые источники роста, «динамика ВВП будет находиться где‑то около нулевой отметки» (цитата по сайту Кремля). Задачу экономического совета президент обрисовал так: «Обсудить и наметить ключевые ориентиры экономической политики до 2025 года, определить основные факторы роста экономики и развития социальной сферы». И обозначил ограничения: «Сохранить макроэкономическую стабильность, не допустить раскачки бюджетного дефицита и разгона инфляции».
Резонансные темы
Обсуждение за закрытыми дверями продолжалось три часа. С докладами выступили председатель Центра стратегических разработок Алексей Кудрин, бизнес-омбудсмен Борис Титов и министр экономического развития Алексей Улюкаев. Отдельное выступление было у советника президента Сергея Глазьева. Оно было посвящено денежно-кредитной политике, сказали три собеседника РБК, присутствовавшие на совещании — федеральный чиновник и два представителя бизнес-организаций.
На заседании поднималось сразу несколько резонансных тем: денежная эмиссия, за счет которой предлагается увеличить инвестиции в экономику, необходимость сокращения дефицита бюджета, а также тема теневой занятости и «гаражной экономики», рассказали собеседники РБК. Решений ни по одному из перечисленных вопросов принято не было, утверждают они.
Предложение о целевой денежной эмиссии исходило от Титова и Глазьева. Необходимый объем такой денежной эмиссии, указанный ранее в докладе «Экономика роста» Столыпинского клуба, — 1,5 трлн руб. в год. «Были разные взгляды на роль потенциальной денежной эмиссии для стимулирования роста. Есть позиция, которая заключается в том, что даже разговоры об эмиссии опасны с точки зрения влияния на потенциальную инфляцию. Есть позиция, что монетарная эмиссия не будет влиять на инфляцию. Принципиально, что нужно поддерживать именно инвестиционные расходы, которые приводят к сокращению импорта или росту экспорта», — говорит один из собеседников РБК. По его словам, тратить такие деньги на рост доходов и поддержку внутреннего спроса бессмысленно — это просто перекроется ростом импорта.
Путин на заседании не высказал мнения насчет эмиссии, утверждают два участника встречи. Саму идею он не отверг, а выслушал мнения.
Бюджет и пенсии
Серьезная дискуссия развернулась по поводу того, что делать с дефицитом бюджета, рассказывает один из собеседников РБК. Алексей Кудрин, председатель ЦСР и заместитель Путина в экономическом совете, выступает за ограничение расходов бюджета и сокращение дефицита. Оптимальный способ, который позволит удержать расходы и сократить дефицит, — это стимулирование экономического роста до 4% в год в 2018–2019 годах, говорилось в презентации ЦСР, подготовленной к заседанию (есть у РБК). Достижение таких темпов роста в среднесрочной перспективе будет возможно только в случае проведения реформ, включая сокращение государственного участия в экономике, повышение пенсионного возраста и улучшение судебной и правоохранительной систем, следует из презентации. «Моя цель — показать, что если не заниматься институтами, то роста экономики не будет», — пояснял Кудрин агентству Bloomberg. «Позиция достаточно консервативна, — комментирует один из собеседников РБК. — Вопрос, как тратить [на что направлять бюджетные расходы]».
Министр экономического развития Алексей Улюкаев предложил помочь компаниям снизить издержки, в том числе за счет сокращения расходов на труд и сдерживания роста тарифов естественных монополий, рассказали два собеседника из президиума экономического совета, присутствовавшие на заседании. Это позволит бизнесу высвободить ресурсы для инвестиций. Но против сокращения издержек на труд выступила «социальный» вице-премьер Ольга Голодец: она сказала, что из-за этого будет сокращаться потребление — один из источников экономического роста, рассказали два собеседника.
Отдельно на совете затронули проблемы рынка труда и теневой занятости. На неформальный рынок труда в России приходится до 33% всех занятых в экономике (22,3 млн человек в 2014 году, по оценке директора Института труда и страхования РАНХиГС Александра Сафонова). «На этой теме президент активнее включился в дискуссию и сказал, что нужно понять, что именно заставляет людей уходить в тень, и предложить что-то, что позволит этим людям легализовать труд», — пересказывает содержание дискуссии один из собеседников РБК.
Обсуждалась и тема пенсионного возраста. О необходимости повышения пенсионного возраста сказал Кудрин, а Улюкаев добавил, что избежать этого решения не удастся. Однако Голодец считает, что нужно подходить к этому вопросу осторожно и «поэтапно», рассказали два участника заседания. «Она [тема повышения пенсионного возраста] поднималась в моем выступлении и в комментариях Голодец. Сегодня он [президент] эту тему не затрагивал», — сообщил Кудрин после заседания (цитата по ТАСС). РБК ожидает комментариев представителей Улюкаева и Голодец.
Пока неясно, будут ли по итогам совещания какие-нибудь поручения, сказал РБК пресс-секретарь президента Дмитрий Песков. «Все точки зрения приняты во внимание. Обсуждение будет продолжено», — сообщил он.
При участии Михаила Рубина
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