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Биржи США открылись в «красной зоне» после победы Трампа
Нью-Йоркская фондовая биржа. 9 ноября 2016 года
Фото: SPENCER PLATT/GETTY IMAGES/AFP
Выборы в США
Напарник Клинтон заявил о «народной» победе кандидата от демократов
20:42
Обама выступил с речью после победы Трампа на выборах
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Американский фондовый рынок вслед за европейским и российским открылся в минусе. Инвесторы начали сомневаться в вероятности повышения ставки ФРС в декабре и ждут падения рисковых активов
Фондовый рынок США в среду, 9 ноября, открылся в минусе на новостях о победе Дональда Трампа на президентских выборах в США. Ранее старт в «красной зоне» демонстрировали европейские и российская площадки.
Основные фондовые индексы США на открытии торгов в 17:30 мск демонстрировали снижение в пределах 1%, но позднее промышленный индекс Dow Jones перешел к росту. По состоянию на 18:09 мск индекс вырос относительно уровня закрытия предыдущей сессии на 0,09%, до 18349,00 пункта. Индекс высокотехнологичных компаний NASDAQ снизился на 0,36%, до 5174,72 пункта. Индекс широкого рынка S&P 500 — опустился на 0,25%, до 2134,10 пункта.
Цены на нефть, демонстрировавшие волатильность в течение дня, к вечеру стабилизировались. Январские фьючерсы на нефть марки Brent на Лондонской бирже ICE Futures к 17:46 мск подешевели на 0,22%, до $45,94 за барр. Котировки декабрьских фьючерсов на WTI на Нью-Йоркской товарной бирже снизились на 0,38%, до $44,78 за барр. Ранее в ходе торгов в среду Brent дешевела до $44,4 за барр., WTI — до $43,07 за барр.
Поначалу финансовые рынки негативно отреагировали на неожиданную для инвесторов новость о победе Трампа. Биржи Японии, Китая, Южной Кореи и Австралии закрылись в минусе. Основные европейские биржи и Московская биржа открылись снижением и показывали отрицательную динамику в течение дня, но затем тенденция изменилась. В частности, на Московской бирже к 14:30 мск индекс ММВБ вырос на 1,2%, а индекс РТС — почти на 1,7%. По мнению эксперта британского брокера City Index Кэтлин Брукс, слова которой приводит The Telegraph, изменение динамики произошло на фоне обещаний Трампа объединить разрозненные политические фракции и удвоить темпы роста экономики США.
Рынок российских евробондов практически не отреагировал на политические новости из США. Цена выпуска «Россия 2042» снизилась на 1%, стоимость бондов «Россия 2026» снизилась всего на 0,3%. «Распродаж российского долга мы не наблюдаем. Рынки пытаются осознать последствия избрания Трампа», — говорит старший портфельный управляющий GHP Group Федор Бизиков.
Вместе с тем суверенные еврооблигации Украины в среду стремительно дешевели на новостях из США. Стоимость бумаг с погашением в 2019 году к 15:20 мск упала на 1,87 п.п., их доходность выросла до 8,4% годовых.
Аналитики подчеркивают политическую неопределенность, которую несет перспектива президентства Трампа. «Инвесторы не знают, что он может сделать. Выдвигаемые им политические меры размыты, а его настроения неустойчивы», — говорил агентству Reuters директор по инвестициям BMO Private Bank Джек Эблин. Он полагает, что победа Трампа повлечет падение рынка акций США на 10% в течение следующих десяти сессий.
По мнению старшего аналитика Commonwealth Омара Эзинера, главный удар примут на себя развивающиеся рынки. Эзинер уточняет, что из развивающихся рынков сильнее всего уязвим мексиканский. После победы Трампа, известного жесткой риторикой по отношению к Мексике, мексиканский песо обвалился к доллару более чем на 8%.
Давление на рисковые активы и валютные рынки развивающихся стран, в том числе Мексики, продолжится до тех пор, пока не будет внесено больше ясности в политику нового президента США, о которой у рынка на сегодняшний момент смутное представление, считают аналитики ING. Стратег «Ренессанс Капитала» Чарльз Робертсон считает, что Россия, возможно, является наиболее очевидным бенефициаром победы Трампа. Его избрание дает надежду на смягчение санкций в адрес России в 2017 году, считает Робертсон.
Кроме того, ключевая проблема для финансовых рынков — политика Трампа в отношении торговли. Трамп угрожал разорвать ключевые торговые соглашения и ввести ограничения на импорт в США из таких стран, как Мексика и Китай. Аналитики ING опасаются, что страны, в отношении которых могут ввести ограничения, примут соответствующие контрмеры, что выльется в «торговую войну». Это, в свою очередь, в дальнейшем ослабит международную торговлю и рост ВВП. «Агрессивный протекционист Трамп может развязать глобальную торговую войну с разрушительными последствиями для рисковых активов и глобального роста», — отмечается в их обзоре. В связи с нестабильностью на глобальных рынках на фоне победы Трампа существенно снижаются шансы того, что ФРС повысит ставку в декабре, добавляют в ING.
«Почувствуют ли рынки симпатию к Трампу или сохранят обеспокоенность касательно рисков — станет ясно лишь через месяцы или кварталы», — указывается в обзоре.
Вице-президент и руководитель департамента глобальных рынков Sberbank CIB Андрей Шеметов добавляет, что реакция рынков не была такой резкой, как на новостях об итоге референдума о выходе Великобритании из Евросоюза. «После того как рынок поверил в возможность победы Дональда Трампа, индекс S&P упал на 5%, но после официального подтверждения победы Трампа и его пресс-конференции снижение S&P составило лишь 2%. Котировки Treasuries сейчас стабильны, в какой-то степени пострадал рынок Мексики. Но тогда, после Brexit, рынки быстро «отскочили», в то время как сейчас мы наблюдаем более спокойный, но долгосрочный тренд», — сказал он РБК.
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