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- МЭР назвал оптимистичным прогноз цены на нефть в $50-60 на 2016 год
- Путин подписал указ о назначении Орешкина главой Минэкономразвития
- США предсказали падение производительности впервые за 30 лет
- Новая реальность: что ожидает россиян и бизнес после обвала рубля
02:03, 02 Март 2021
На ту же тему
Улюкаев прогнозирует снижение оттока капитала и ключевой ставки ЦБ
Министр экономического развития Алексей Улюкаев заверил депутатов Госдумы в том, что Россия значительно легче переживает второй нефтяной шок, который случился при ценах на нефть во второй половине прошлого года.
“Сейчас мы находимся в очень симметричной ситуации, поскольку пожинаем плоды второго нефтяного шока. Но результаты для экономики, для социальной сферы, для бюджета совершенно разные. Если первый нефтяной шок мы пережили при глубочайшей девальвации национальной валюты, 2,5-разовом росте инфляции, то второй нефтяной шок испытываем совершенно по-другому”, – цитирует ТАСС выступление министра в ходе “Правительственного часа” в нижней палате.
Девальвация крайне незначительна, инфляция уменьшается, “и сегодня мы вышли на уровень меньше 8% инфляции к соответствующему периоду прошлого года”, подчеркнул министр.
Он также отметил, что для реальной экономики последствия “оказались крайне незначительными”. “Происходят колебания начиная с июля прошлого года, в течение последних восьми месяцев, в районе точки ноль”, – пояснил он. “Российская экономика показала высокую степень адаптивности”, – сказал Улюкаев.
Причиной очередного снижения цен на нефть, по словам министра, стало отсутствие внятного решения ОПЕК по квотам по итогам заседания 4 декабря и неизменность риторики, указывающей на стремление ОПЕК сохранить свою долю на рынке.
По его мнению, для стабилизации цен на нефть все страны должны установить ограничения на добычу. Однако все равно придется привыкнуть годами жить в условиях невысоких цен на нефть – 40-50 долларов за баррель.
“Весьма вероятно, что второй квартал покажет нам положительную оценку не только по росту промышленного производства, но и ВВП”, – спрогнозировал Алексей, отметив, что сохраняются риски ограничения потребительского спроса. “Спад розничной торговли у нас меньше, чем он был в прошлом году, 7% за первые два месяца года относительно первых двух месяцев предыдущего года”, – сообщил он.
“В январе по-прежнему спад (ВВП), но уже меньше 3% – 2,7%. При этом впервые за довольно долгое время отмечается положительная динамика промышленного производства”, – указал Улюкаев.
При этом Улюкаев ожидает дальнейшего оттока капитала из РФ. Что касается инфляции, то по итогам 2016 года она составит 7,5%, а к концу 2018 года достигнет 5,5%, считает он.
Глава Минэкономразвития также сообщил, что банковская система РФ находится в устойчивом состоянии и обладает избытком ликвидности.
Правительство в этой связи поставит перед Банком России вопрос о расширении лимита по проектному финансированию, заявил Улюкаев. Сейчас лимит составляет 50 млрд рублей, и “понятно, что он крайне незначительный и нужно ставить вопрос о расширении”.
ЦБ имеет существенный ресурс для снижения ключевой ставки на фоне замедления инфляции, заявил министр.
“Для той инфляции, наверное, 11% было разумным решением. Но сегодня она снизилась на три с лишним процентных пункта, на сегодняшнюю дату – 7,9%, а ключевая ставка – 11%. Понятно, что здесь есть существенный ресурс для того, чтобы сделать шаг навстречу заемщикам, понизив общую ставку в экономике”, – считает министр.
В начале марта Улюкаев говорил, что ожидает роста российской экономики в третьем квартале текущего года. Ранее председатель Банка России Эльвира Набиуллина предсказывала, что ВВП может вернуться к квартальному росту в четвертом квартале этого года.
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